History repeats itself. We have all heard this term, but does it apply to who wins the presidency? More specifically, does the same kind of Democratic nominee always win the White House?
Looking back over 40 years, two clear trends emerge about the profile of the Democrat presidential nominee that wins the White House by beating a Republican incumbent.
Since 1976, Democrats have won the White House five times and Republicans have won the White House six times. Democrats have won the White House back from Republican Incumbents three times. Democrats have failed to win the White House back from Republican incumbents five times.
Each of the three times Democrats have won the White House back from the other party, they have nominated a candidate who is relatively young and has limited public political experience. Specifically, Democratic nominees who go on to win control of the White House from GOP incumbents have UNDER 20 years of public political experience and are YOUNGER than 55 years old.
In 2008, Barack Obama was elected President after defeating Republican John McCain. While Senator McCain was not an incumbent, his party did control the White House for the eight years prior. When Obama was first elected President, he was 47 years old and had only 12 years of public political experience.
Similarly, in 1992, Bill Clinton was able to win control of the White House after defeating the Republican incumbent, George H. W. Bush. Bill Clinton had 16 years of public political experience and was only 46 years old.
Finally, Jimmy Carter, at the age of 52 and with 14 years of public political experience, was elected in President in 1762 after defeating President Gerald Ford.
Notably, Democrats have failed to win back control of the White House from Republicans when they have nominated candidates older than 52 who have decades and decades of public political experience.
Democratic presidential nominees Hillary Clinton, John Kerry, Al Gore, Michael Dukakis and Walter Mondale all had over 20 years of public political experience when they ran for President and were older than 54 years old.
If Democrats want to win control of the White House from Republicans, they might consider nominating a fresh face who does not have the baggage of decades of political experience.
YEAR: 2020
Democratic Nominee: Joe Biden
First Elected: 1970 Years in Political Life: 50
Age When Ran for President: 78
YEAR: 2016
Democratic Nominee: Hillary Clinton
First Elected: 2000
Years in Political Life: 40
Age When Ran for President: 69
YEAR: 2012
Democratic Nominee: Barack Obama (WIN)
First Elected: 1996
Years in Political Life: 16
Age When Ran for President: 51
YEAR: 2008
Democratic Nominee: Barack Obama (WIN)
First Elected: 1996
Years in Political Life: 12
Age When Ran for President: 47
YEAR: 2004
Democratic Nominee: John Kerry
First Elected: 1984
Years in Political Life: 24
Age When Ran for President: 61
YEAR: 2000
Democratic Nominee: Al Gore
First Elected: 1976
Years in Political Life: 20
Age When Ran for President: 54
YEAR: 1996
Democratic Nominee: Bill Clinton (WIN)
First Elected: 1976
Years in Political Life: 20
Age When Ran for President: 50
YEAR: 1992
Democratic Nominee: Bill Clinton (WIN)
First Elected: 1976
Years in Political Life: 16
Age When Ran for President: 46
YEAR: 1988
Democratic Nominee: Michael Dukakis
First Elected: 1962
Years in Political Life: 26
Age When Ran for President: 55
YEAR: 1984
Democratic Nominee: Walter Mondale
First Elected: 1960
Years in Political Life: 24
Age When Ran for President: 58
YEAR: 1980
Democratic Nominee: Jimmy Carter
First Elected: 1962
Years in Political Life: 18
Age When Ran for President: 56
YEAR: 1976
Democratic Nominee: Jimmy Carter (WIN)
First Elected: 1962
Years in Political Life: 14
Age When Ran for President: 52
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