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Expanding Your Majority:

The United States Senate convened for the first time on March 4, 1789. However, unlike today, the first session of the U.S. Senate was held in New York City's Federal Hall. It would not be until 1800 that the U.S. Senate would eventually be located in Washington, D.C.


In the Senate's 232 year history, the chamber has only been evenly divided between political parties four times. It occurred for the first time in 1881, when there were 37 Democrats, 37 Republicans and 2 independents who split their votes between the two parties. It happened again for a few months in 1954, after a Senator died. As a result of the 2000 election, the Senate was split evenly for six months in 2001. And now, once again, the Senate is evenly divided between lawmakers who caucus with the Democrats and Republicans.


According to Article I, section 3 of the U.S. Constitution, the Vice President of the United States is tasked with casting any tie-breaking vote in the Senate. Since 1789, 279 tie-breaking votes have been cast.


Despite Democrats regaining control of the Senate earlier this year, they are still significantly hampered in their ability to pass their agenda. The Senate cloture rule requires 60 Senators to end debate (filibuster) and proceed to a vote on most issues. The practical result of the filibuster is that 60 votes, not 51 votes, are needed to pass almost everything.


One tool Democrats have to get legislation passed in the Senate without 60 votes - a super majority - is budget reconciliation. Budget reconciliation allows certain spending bills to pass the Senate with just a simple majority vote and not be subject to the filibuster. However, there are stipulations with respect to its use. Reconciliation can only be used once per fiscal year and it can only be used to change laws related to taxes and spending.


Because Democrats hold the narrowest possible majority in the Senate, they need the support of their entire caucus to pass legislation by reconciliation without Republican votes. As Democrats have experienced since they regained the majority in the Senate, this is easier said than done. While 50 Senators caucus with the Democrats, these 50 lawmakers have different priorities and constituencies. Some Democrats represent extraordinary liberal states like Massachusetts and Vermont, while other Democrats represent very moderate states like Michigan and Arizona.


As Democrats work to pass President Biden’s Build Back Better Agenda, tensions have flared as progressives lawmakers have criticized moderates for not going along with their policy proposals. Attracting the most scorn from progressives has been Democratic Senators Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ). The two moderate Senators rejected their party’s $3.5 trillion social spending package on the grounds that it was too expensive.


While some Democrats responded to Manchin and Sinema’s rejection of the social spending bill by offering to meet with them and work out a deal, other progressive Democrats and far-left activists immediately began to attack them.


Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez tore into Senator Manchin as corrupt and suggested his actions were leading to the death of Americans.


"Manchin has weekly huddles w/ Exxon & is one of many senators who gives lobbyists their pen to write so-called 'bipartisan' fossil fuel bills," she tweeted. "It’s killing people. Our people. At least 12 last night. Sick of this ‘bipartisan’ corruption that masquerades as clear-eyed moderation."


Not to be outdone, Congresswoman Pramila Jayapal (D-WA), the leader of the Congressional Progressive, seemed to blame Manchin for the problems in her district.


"Instead of writing op-eds, why don't you look into the faces of my residents who have had their basements flooded with sewage multiple times and their power out for days, Senator Manchin. We deserve better," she tweeted.


While the criticism of Senator Manchin was rough, it pales in comparison to the vitriol faced by Senator Sinema.


After hounding Senator Sinema while she delivered a lecture at Arizona State University, activists posted a video of them following Senator Sinema into a bathroom and demanding that she support the social spending bill.


In addition, Sinema was subject to comments about her competency and appearance from her progressive colleagues in the House.

Congressman Ro Khanna (D-CA) told a reporter that Sinema was "not demonstrating the basic competence or good faith of a member of Congress," and Congressman Mark Pocan (D-WI) said Democrats were waiting for Sinema to “show us something other than a designer purse."


Not only are these personal attacks mean and cruel, but they are unintelligent and counterproductive. If your aim is to convince people of your point of view, telling them what an awful person they are is usually not the key. This criticism is on top of the fact that at least with respect to Senator Manchin, the guy knows what his constituents want. Senator Manchin is the only Democrat elected statewide in West Virginia - a state former President Trump won by almost 40 points in 2020.


The story with regard to how well Senator Sinema knows her state of Arizona is slightly more opaque. Sinema was first elected to the U.S. Senate from Arizona in 2019 and the state is shifting left. In the 2004 presidential election, Republican George W. Bush defeated Democrat John Kerry in Arizona by almost 11 points. By 2016, Trump defeated Clinton by under 4 points and in 2020, Biden defeated Trump by under half a point. However, irrespective of Arizona clearly moving in a liberal direction, questioning Senator Sinema’s intelligence is not going to ingratiate yourself towards her.


Instead of liberals attacking Manchin and Sinema, they should spend their time working to elect more Democrats to the Senate. If Democrats can increase their majority in the Senate, they won't be dependent on every member of their caucus voting in unison to pass their agenda.


Thankfully for Democrats there are ample opportunities for them to expand their majority in the Senate. In the 2020 presidential election, the 5 closest states were Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and North Carolina. In Georgia and Arizona, Democrats hold both Senate seats; while in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, one Senator is a Democrat and the other is a Republican. Democrats should channel their efforts into electing not one, but two Senators from Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.


President Biden defeated former President Trump by just over 20,000 votes in Wisconsin, or .6 percentage points. In 2016, Trump defeated Hillary Clinton by just over 22,000 votes in Wisconsin, or .8 percentage points.


While it will obviously be a challenge for Democrats to pick up a Senate seat in Wisconsin, the good news is that in Georgia and Arizona, where Democrats hold both Senate seats, Biden defeated Trump by less than he did in Wisconsin. In Georgia, Biden defeated Trump by .2 percentage points, or around 11,800 votes and in Arizona, Biden defeated Trump by .3 percentage points, or around 10,500 votes.


Democrats should also look to North Carolina and Florida to pick up Senate seats. In each of these Southern states, both Senate seats are held by Republicans. In the 2020 election, North Carolina was the closest swing state to vote for Trump over Biden. The former president defeated Biden by 1.4 percentage points, or around 75,000 votes. This margin of victory was significantly down from the 3.8 percentage points Trump defeated Clinton by in 2016.


Unlike in North Carolina, Trump’s margin of victory in Florida increased between 2016 and 2020. In 2016, Trump narrowly defeated Clinton by 1.2 percentage points, or around 113,000 votes. However, after four years of the Trump Administration, Floridians increased their support for the former president. In 2020, Trump defeated Biden by 3.4 percentage points, or around 380,000 votes.


Taken together, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Florida represent an opportunity for Democrats to pick up six seats in the Senate. While this might seem like a daunting task, only 10 years ago, Democrats controlled 59 seats in the Senate. It was during this time that Democrats were able to pass Obamacare into law and expand health coverage to 20 million Americans and save thousands of lives.


By expanding their majority in the Senate, Democrats will not need every vote from their caucus to pass legislation by reconciliation. While it might be fun for progressives to call their more moderate colleagues names and blame them for inaction in Washington, very rarely has this approach yielded results. Right now, all Democratic lawmakers should focus on areas where they agree and pass legislation that represents those shared values. Next, they should prioritize expanding their representation in the Senate and not taking out their more moderate members who allow them to retain the majority.



10 closest states in the 2020 presidential election:


1. Georgia (.2 percentage points for Biden) - 2 Dem Senators

2. Arizona (.3 percentage points for Biden) - 2 Dem Senators

3. Wisconsin (.6 percentage points for Biden) - 1 GOP Senator

4. Pennsylvania (1.2 percentage points for Biden) - 1 GOP Senator

5. North Carolina (1.4 percentage points for Trump) - 2 GOP Senators

6. Nevada (2.4 percentage points for Biden) - 2 Dem Senators

7. Michigan (2.8 percentage points for Biden) - 2 Dem Senators

8. Florida (3.4 percentage points for Trump) - 2 GOP Senators

9. Texas (5.7 percentage points for Trump) - 2 GOP Senators

10. Minnesota (7.3 percentage points for Biden) - 2 Dem Senators


49. West Virginia (39.6 percentage points for Trump)



Party of U.S. Senators in Closest State in 2020 presidential election:

1. Georgia (.2 percentage points for Biden)


Ossoff (D)

Warnock (D)


2. Arizona (.3 percentage points for Biden)


Kelly (D)

Sinema (D)


3. Wisconsin (.6 percentage points for Biden)


Baldwin (D)

Johnson (R)


4. Pennsylvania (1.2 percentage points for Biden)


Casey (D)

Toomey (R)


5. North Carolina (1.4 percentage points for Trump)


Burr (R)

Tillis (R)


6. Nevada (2.4 percentage points for Biden)


Cortez Masto (D)

Rosen (D)


7. Michigan (2.8 percentage points for Biden)


Peters (D)

Stabenow (D)



8. Florida (3.4 percentage points for Trump)


Rubio (R)

Scott (R)


9. Texas (5.7 percentage points for Trump)


Cornyn (R)

Cruz (R)


10. Minnesota (7.3 percentage points for Biden)


Klobuchar (D)

Smith (D)



49. West Virginia (39.6 percentage points for Trump)


Capito (R)

Manchin (D)



10 closest states in the 2016 presidential election:

1. Michigan (.2 percentage points for Trump)

2. New Hampshire (.4 percentage points for Clinton)

3. Wisconsin (.8 percentage point for Trump)

4. Pennsylvania (.8 percentage points for Trump)

5. Florida (1.2 percentage points for Trump)

6. Minnesota (1.7 percentage points for Clinton)

7. Nevada (2.6 percentage points for Clinton)

8. Maine (3.2 percentage points for Clinton)

9. North Carolina (3.8 percentage points for Trump)

10. Arizona (3.8 percentage points for Trump)


49. West Virginia (44.3 percentage points for Trump)



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